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Kalshi’s 2027 recession probability rises seven points to 26 percent

PredictionBubbles lists the contract on its other markets board, which ranks markets by total traded volume across Kalshi and Polymarket. Each contract pays 1 dollar if the outcome occurs.

A Kalshi contract tied to whether a recession occurs in 2027 is priced at 26 percent, up 7 points, according to PredictionBubbles. The reported total traded volume is 937,000 dollars.

The figures were published on Nov 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. The supplied material does not specify the period over which the 7-point increase occurred.

Where the contract sits

PredictionBubbles includes the recession contract on its other markets board. That board ranks markets by total traded volume across Kalshi and Polymarket, according to the outlet.

Each contract pays 1 dollar if the outcome occurs. The supplied summary does not include the recession contract’s precise resolution criteria or its position in the board’s ranking.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The move to 26 percent signals a higher market-implied likelihood of a 2027 recession, though the timing of that repricing is unspecified.
  • The 937,000 dollars in total traded volume measures activity, not the number of participants or their degree of agreement.
  • The resolution criteria are not provided, limiting interpretation of exactly what would trigger the 1-dollar payout.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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