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Polymarket odds for US invasion of Iran decline to 10.5 percent

The contract traded 772,700 dollars in 24 hours with 338,400 dollars in liquidity in PolymarketTrader's November 5 snapshot. Earlier coverage had priced the same contract at 17 cents when it led tracked volume boards.

A Polymarket contract on whether the United States will invade Iran before 2027 fell 7 percentage points to 10.5 percent, according to PolymarketTrader.

The update was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 12:15 AM ET, marking a lower implied probability for the event.

Trading activity and earlier pricing

PolymarketTrader’s November 5 snapshot recorded $772,700 in trading volume over 24 hours and $338,400 in liquidity for the contract. Those figures describe trading activity and available liquidity, rather than evidence that an invasion will occur.

Earlier coverage had placed the same contract at 17 cents when it topped the tracked volume rankings. That earlier price and the latest reported 7-point decline are separate reference points; the supplied material does not establish the precise interval used to calculate the decline.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The latest 10.5 percent reading indicates a lower market-implied likelihood of a United States invasion of Iran before 2027.
  • The $772,700 in 24-hour volume provides context for the repricing, while the $338,400 liquidity figure is a distinct measure.
  • The supplied reporting identifies no catalyst for the move, so attributing it to a particular development would go beyond the available information.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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