Polymarket puts US announcement ending Iranian blockade at 71 percent

A Polymarket contract on whether the United States will announce an end to the Iranian blockade by March 31 is priced at 71 percent, according to PolymarketTrader. Trading volume in the contract totals 640,500 dollars.

Blockade question features among active political markets

The contract appears in the politics and elections most-traded list in PolymarketTrader’s November 5 snapshot. The supplied report was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 1:30 AM ET.

The contract concerns an announcement by the United States. The supplied summary does not provide the full resolution criteria or specify the year associated with the March 31 deadline.

Nearby Iran contracts show a different pricing picture

Other Iran-related contracts in the same snapshot price a continued Israel-Iran ceasefire through October 31 above 99.9 percent, according to PolymarketTrader.

Those contracts address a different event and deadline from the blockade question. The summary provides no additional resolution details, limiting what can be inferred from the gap between their prices.

What it means for prediction markets

• The 71 percent price indicates that the blockade-announcement outcome is favored, but not treated as certain.
• The 640,500 dollars traded and inclusion in the most-traded list establish activity in the contract; neither alone establishes forecast accuracy.
• The above-99.9-percent ceasefire pricing is not a direct comparison: the contracts concern different outcomes and dates, and the supplied material omits their full terms.