Polymarket ceasefire odds reach 77 percent as ProbCast confirms move
ProbCast, in its board updated at 7:20 PM ET on November 4, grades the ceasefire move as confirmed, backed by deep liquidity and a tight spread. It was among 29 confirmed moves the tracker scored across live markets in the last 24 hours.
A Polymarket contract on the Israel and Iran ceasefire continuing through November 15 rose 17.5 points to 77 percent, according to ProbCast.
Tracker flags a confirmed shift
ProbCast classified the move as confirmed in its board update at 7:20 PM ET on November 4. The supplied report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 7:30 PM ET.
The tracker cited deep liquidity and a tight spread as support for that assessment. Those indicators describe the market conditions behind the price move, rather than independently establishing whether the ceasefire will hold.
One of 29 confirmed moves
The ceasefire contract was among 29 confirmed moves ProbCast scored across live markets over the last 24 hours. The supplied material does not identify the other contracts or explain what prompted the ceasefire repricing.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 77 percent price reflects a stronger market assessment of the ceasefire continuing through November 15, following a 17.5-point rise.
- ProbCast’s confirmation concerns the trading move and its liquidity conditions—not confirmation of the contract’s eventual outcome.
- The summary provides no underlying news catalyst or contract resolution criteria, limiting conclusions about why traders repriced the outcome.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- ProbCast
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
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