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Kalshi pricing jumps on long-horizon fed funds threshold contract

The move was among the largest quote-to-quote rises in BotForKalshi's Kalshi today snapshot, with a 7 cent spread. The contract covers the fed funds rate at the end of 2036.

A Kalshi contract tied to the fed funds rate being above 3.25 percent at the end of 2036 rose 35.5 cents to 91.5 cents, according to BotForKalshi.

The update was published on Nov 6, 2026, at 8:15 AM ET. The contract concerns the rate at the end of 2036, rather than an upcoming Federal Reserve decision.

A large quote move with limited context

According to BotForKalshi, the increase ranked among the largest quote-to-quote rises in its snapshot of Kalshi activity that day. The snapshot also showed a 7 cent spread.

The supplied summary does not identify a catalyst, trading volume or the interval between the two quotes. It therefore establishes a substantial change in quoted pricing, but not how much trading supported that move.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 91.5 cent quote reflects pricing for a specific outcome: the fed funds rate being above 3.25 percent at the end of 2036. It is not a forecast of the exact rate.
  • The 35.5 cent increase is a quote-to-quote comparison, not an explicitly identified daily gain.
  • The 7 cent spread is relevant context when interpreting the quoted price; the summary does not provide the underlying bid and ask or a transaction price.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    BotForKalshi
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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