Rick Scott nomination market draws heavy turnover at near-zero pricing
ProbCast ranks the Rick Scott contract third by 24-hour dollar volume among real-money markets in its 7:49 PM ET update, at 0 percent and up 0.1 points. ProbCast scores prediction market moves on Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold for the liquidity and trading behind them.
A Polymarket contract on Rick Scott winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination recorded 746,400 dollars in trading over 24 hours despite a price near zero, according to ProbCast.
Turnover outpaces the implied chance
In its 7:49 PM ET update, ProbCast ranked the Scott contract third among real-money markets by 24-hour dollar volume. The summary was published Nov 6, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET.
ProbCast listed the contract at 0 percent, up 0.1 points. Those reported figures place substantial trading activity alongside a negligible displayed probability—not a large upward repricing of Scott’s nomination prospects.
What the ranking measures
ProbCast evaluates prediction-market moves on Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold by assessing the liquidity and trading behind them. The Scott contract’s position in this update was a ranking by dollar turnover, rather than by probability.
The supplied summary does not identify the traders or explain what drove the activity. It therefore establishes the scale of turnover, but not the motivation behind it.
What it means for prediction markets
- Volume and probability are distinct signals: Third place in 24-hour dollar volume does not imply a comparable standing in the nomination race.
- The displayed figures need care: ProbCast reported both 0 percent and a 0.1-point increase; the summary provides no further pricing detail.
- The cause remains unclear: The available information does not establish whether the turnover reflected a change in traders’ expectations.
Sources & attribution
- Published
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- ProbCast
- Publisher
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