December Fed hike contract leads economics trading on Polymarket
The December Fed decision market is trading at about twice its usual pace, with no change priced at 22 cents and a 50-plus basis point decrease at 0.90 cents. It is the most traded economics market in the top 50 over the last 24 hours.
A Polymarket contract tied to a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate increase in December is priced at 77 cents, according to DeFi Rate. Trading totaled 686,000 dollars over the last 24 hours.
Activity runs above its usual pace
The December Fed decision market is trading at about twice its usual pace, according to DeFi Rate. The report was published on Nov 6, 2026, at 8:45 PM ET.
Over the last 24 hours, it was the most traded economics market among the top 50. That ranking places the December decision at the forefront of the economics contracts in that group by trading activity.
Prices favor a quarter-point increase
The contract for no change is priced at 22 cents, while a decrease of 50-plus basis points is priced at 0.90 cents, according to DeFi Rate.
Among those reported outcomes, the 25 basis point increase carries the highest price. The figures provide a snapshot of market positioning, rather than confirmation of the Fed’s eventual decision.
What it means for prediction markets
- A hike leads the reported alternatives: The 77-cent price for a 25 basis point increase stands well above 22 cents for no change and 0.90 cents for a 50-plus basis point decrease.
- Participation is elevated: Trading at about twice the usual pace, with 686,000 dollars traded in 24 hours, makes activity an important part of this snapshot alongside prices.
- Volume does not establish direction: The reported turnover and ranking show trading intensity, but do not indicate whether the hike contract’s price rose or fell during the period.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- DeFi Ratedefirate.com
- Publisher
- https://defirate.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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