Kalshi’s midterm surge lifts election-cycle trading past $3 billion
NEXTPredict reports Kalshi's cumulative total stood at about 1.54 billion dollars early Tuesday, before election results drove the week's surge. Combined with Polymarket's activity, trading for the full election cycle passed 3 billion dollars.
Kalshi’s cumulative midterm trading volume exceeded $2.8 billion by Friday afternoon, according to NEXTPredict. Together with Polymarket’s activity, trading across the full election cycle passed $3 billion.
Results drive the week’s increase
Kalshi’s cumulative total was about $1.54 billion early Tuesday, according to NEXTPredict. Election results then drove a surge in trading during the week.
The reported figures put Kalshi’s increase between early Tuesday and Friday afternoon at more than $1.26 billion, using the approximate Tuesday total as the baseline.
NEXTPredict’s update, published Nov 6, 2026, at 8:30 PM ET, did not provide a separate volume figure for Polymarket in the supplied summary. The combined milestone covers the full election cycle, rather than just the week’s trading.
What it means for prediction markets
- The time window matters: Kalshi’s $2.8 billion figure is cumulative midterm volume, while the combined total above $3 billion spans the full election cycle.
- Results were a trading catalyst: The increase from about $1.54 billion early Tuesday shows substantial activity as election results arrived, according to NEXTPredict.
- Volume is not a probability signal: The supplied figures describe trading activity; they do not establish how individual contract prices changed or how accurately markets anticipated outcomes.
Sources & attribution
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