Kalshi tech layoff contract reaches 98.1 percent as board volume leader
The contract is the most traded market on the other-markets board, ahead of the contract on a recession starting in 2026, priced at 3 percent with 4 million dollars traded. The board tracks 26 open markets across Kalshi and Polymarket with 51 million dollars in total volume.
A Kalshi contract on whether tech layoffs in 2026 will exceed those in 2025 rose 4.1 points to 98.1 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. The update was published Nov 5, 2026, at 1:00 AM ET.
The contract has attracted 31.5 million dollars in trading volume, making it the most traded market on the other-markets board tracked by PredictionBubbles.
Layoff and recession contracts diverge
Next in the board’s trading-volume ranking is a contract on whether a recession will start in 2026. That contract is priced at 3 percent, with 4 million dollars traded, according to PredictionBubbles.
The two prices reflect sharply different expectations for separate outcomes: tech layoffs exceeding their 2025 level and a recession beginning in 2026. The supplied figures do not explain what drove the layoff contract’s increase.
Activity across two platforms
The board covers 26 open markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, with 51 million dollars in total trading volume. The layoff contract alone accounts for more than half of that total.
Those figures establish its prominence within this particular board, rather than across prediction markets as a whole. The summary does not provide the period over which the 4.1-point increase occurred or the contracts’ settlement criteria.
What it means for prediction markets
- Strong pricing, not certainty: The 98.1 percent price indicates a heavily favored outcome, but does not establish that 2026 tech layoffs will exceed 2025’s total.
- Concentrated activity: With 31.5 million dollars traded out of the board’s 51 million dollars, the layoff contract dominates reported volume.
- Distinct economic questions: The recession contract’s 3 percent price concerns a different event; it is not a direct contradiction of the layoff market’s pricing.
- Limited context: Without settlement rules or a time window for the price move, the summary supports a snapshot of market positioning rather than an explanation of the shift.
Sources & attribution
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