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Polymarket prices year-end Mojtaba Khamenei appearance at 11 percent

The market sits on the World Monitor board of the most traded geopolitics questions for November 5. It resolves on whether Khamenei makes a public appearance before the end of the year.

A Polymarket contract on whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be seen in public by December 31 is priced at 11 percent, according to World Monitor. The contract has recorded 7.6 million dollars in trading volume.

A heavily traded geopolitical question

World Monitor includes the contract on its board of the most traded geopolitics questions for November 5. The report was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 6:15 AM ET.

The 11 percent price places the public-appearance outcome on the less likely side of the market. The reported trading volume measures activity in the contract, rather than establishing whether that outcome will occur.

The year-end condition

The question resolves on whether Khamenei makes a public appearance before the end of the year. The supplied summary does not provide detailed resolution criteria or explain what evidence would qualify as confirmation.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Price and activity are separate signals: The contract pairs an 11 percent price with 7.6 million dollars traded; substantial activity does not itself imply a likely public appearance.
  • The deadline defines the question: The outcome concerns an appearance by December 31, not whether Khamenei might appear at some later point.
  • Resolution details remain important: The summary identifies the event being assessed but does not specify how a qualifying appearance would be verified.
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Sources & attribution

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    World Monitor
    Publisher
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    Source URL
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