Kalshi marijuana contract draws $7.5 million as rescheduling price reaches 86%
DOXA lists the marijuana rescheduling contract among the most liquid politics markets in its latest snapshot. The contract is listed on Kalshi and pays if marijuana is rescheduled before January 20, 2029.
According to DOXA, a Kalshi contract on whether marijuana will be rescheduled before January 20, 2029 is priced at 86 percent, with 7.5 million dollars traded.
DOXA places the contract among the most liquid politics markets in its latest snapshot, published Nov 6, 2026 · 2:45 PM ET.
A deadline-based policy market
The contract pays if marijuana is rescheduled before January 20, 2029. Its outcome therefore depends on both the policy change and whether it occurs before the specified deadline.
The supplied summary does not include the contract’s detailed settlement criteria or identify which official documentation would determine the outcome.
What the snapshot establishes
The price and trading figure provide a snapshot of market positioning and activity. They do not establish that rescheduling will occur, and the summary offers no policy developments explaining the 86 percent price.
Likewise, DOXA’s liquidity classification places the contract within its politics-market coverage, but the supplied material gives no comparative trading figures or historical prices.
What it means for prediction markets
- Timing is central: The stated condition requires rescheduling before January 20, 2029, rather than at an unspecified future date.
- Price is not confirmation: The 86 percent level reflects the contract’s market pricing, not a completed policy change.
- Activity needs context: The reported 7.5 million dollars traded supports DOXA’s emphasis on the contract, but the snapshot does not show how its price or trading activity has changed over time.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- DOXA
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
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