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Kalshi traders assign 10 percent chance to Musk pardon by 2027

PredictionBubbles lists the pardon contract among the Kalshi markets opened in the last 24 hours. The contract resolves in about 56 days and has traded 1,000 dollars so far.

A new Kalshi contract tracking whether Elon Musk receives a presidential pardon before January 1, 2027 is priced at 10 percent, according to PredictionBubbles.

The contract has recorded 1,000 dollars in trading so far. That figure measures activity in the market, rather than the likelihood of the outcome.

Newly opened market, limited trading history

PredictionBubbles included the contract among Kalshi markets opened in the last 24 hours. Its update was published on Nov 6, 2026 at 3:15 PM ET.

The contract resolves in about 56 days, according to PredictionBubbles. The reported price and trading total offer an early snapshot, not evidence that a pardon is being considered.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 10 percent price reflects a low market-implied probability of a pardon before January 1, 2027, rather than a forecast of impossibility.
  • With 1,000 dollars traded so far, the reported activity provides only a limited basis for assessing the breadth of trader conviction.
  • The summary does not provide detailed settlement rules or information about any potential pardon process, limiting interpretation beyond the stated outcome and deadline.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
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