Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Trump removal contract shows wide price divide between prediction venues

ArbTrader lists the contract, which covers removal before the end of his term, among the widest cross-venue gaps on its other markets board. Each contract pays 1 dollar if the outcome occurs.

A contract on Donald Trump being impeached and removed from office trades at 24 cents on Kalshi and 72 cents on Polymarket, according to ArbTrader. The prices place the same stated outcome at sharply different levels across the two venues.

A gap across platforms

ArbTrader lists the contract among the widest cross-venue gaps on its other markets board. The pricing was reported on Nov 6, 2026, at 8:15 AM ET.

The contract covers removal before the end of his term. Each contract pays 1 dollar if the outcome occurs, according to ArbTrader.

The supplied summary does not include the venues’ full contract language or settlement rules. It therefore does not establish whether the two listings have identical resolution criteria.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The reported prices differ by 48 cents, a substantial spread relative to the 1 dollar outcome payout.
  • The stated event requires both impeachment and removal before the end of Trump’s term—not impeachment alone.
  • The price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; the supplied material does not provide full settlement terms or trading conditions.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    ArbTrader
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to ArbTrader”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related