US-Iran ceasefire odds slide sharply across two Polymarket deadlines
PredictionBubbles lists the November 30 ceasefire tranche among the week's new markets that are already moving, down 32.8 points in 24 hours. The longer December 31 tranche fell 26.2 points to 1.8 percent on 193,000 dollars traded.
Polymarket’s contract on a US-Iran effective ceasefire continuing through November 30 fell 32.8 points in 24 hours to 4.2 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. Trading volume stood at 238,000 dollars.
Two deadlines, lower probabilities
PredictionBubbles included the November 30 tranche among the week’s newly launched markets already showing price movement. The update was published on Nov 6, 2026, at 8:15 PM ET.
The longer-dated December 31 tranche also declined, falling 26.2 points to 1.8 percent on 193,000 dollars traded, according to PredictionBubbles.
The November 30 contract had both the larger reported decline and the higher trading volume. Despite that steeper fall, its implied probability remained above the December 31 contract’s level.
What it means for prediction markets
- Both contracts were priced at low implied probabilities, with traders assigning a lower probability to an effective ceasefire continuing through December 31 than through November 30.
- The November 30 tranche’s 32.8-point move in 24 hours highlights substantial repricing in a newly listed market.
- The supplied reporting does not identify a catalyst or provide the contracts’ resolution criteria. These prices therefore should not be treated as confirmation of a change in the ceasefire’s status.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
- Publisher
- https://predictionbubbles.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to PredictionBubbles”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- CFTC tells federally regulated prediction market exchanges they cannot cut off customers by state and gives them 30 days to restore nationwide access or explain why they cannot, CoinDesk reports
- Scott Colom is priced at 99.1 cents on Kalshi to win the Mississippi Senate race, up 88 points over seven days, with 916,000 dollars traded in 24 hours, DeFi Rate reports
- Contract on a 25 basis point Fed rate increase in December is priced at 77 cents on Polymarket, with 686,000 dollars traded in 24 hours, DeFi Rate reports
- Kalshi cumulative midterm trading volume surpasses 2.8 billion dollars by Friday afternoon, pushing combined election-cycle trading above 3 billion dollars, NEXTPredict reports
- Milwaukee win contract rises 38 points to 65 percent on Kalshi, with 1.2 million dollars traded, PredictMarketCap reports
- League of Legends Worlds playoff Game 4 winner market between Karmine Corp and T1 trades 2.61 million dollars on Polymarket, with the leading contract at 44.5 percent, PredictMarketCap reports