Chicago temperature bets diverge sharply from forecast models for November 2

Kalshi traders and forecast models point to different outcomes for Chicago’s November 2 high temperature, according to Weather Markets. Traders favor 63 degrees or below, priced at 66 cents, while the model comparison leans toward 66 to 67 degrees.

Two different temperature signals

Weather Markets identified Chicago as the biggest disagreement for the following day in its update published Nov 1, 2026 · 8:45 PM ET.

Its comparison covered 82 forecast model runs. The 66-to-67-degree bracket received 41 percent, compared with just 5 percent for the traders’ favored bracket of 63 degrees or below.

A gap, not a settled outcome

The figures highlight a sharp contrast between the market price and the model-based assessment. Neither establishes what Chicago’s eventual November 2 high will be; the supplied summary contains no observed result or explanation for the divergence.

What it means for prediction markets

• The central discrepancy is the 66-cent price for 63 degrees or below versus the model comparison’s 5 percent assessment for that bracket.
• The models lean toward 66 to 67 degrees at 41 percent, making it the highlighted alternative rather than a majority-probability outcome.
• Without a price for the 66-to-67-degree bracket in the supplied material, a direct comparison of market pricing across the two outcomes is not available.