Bears settlement pricing diverges from sportsbook consensus after Seahawks favored earlier

Kalshi’s settled NFL market put the Chicago Bears at 99.0 percent and the Seattle Seahawks at 1.0 percent on November 3, according to SportsBookISH. The closing split was more heavily tilted toward Chicago than the final sportsbook consensus.

Closing prices show a gap

Across seven books, the final sportsbook consensus assigned Chicago 90.9 percent and Seattle 9.1 percent, SportsBookISH reported. That left the Bears’ Kalshi figure 8.1 percentage points above the sportsbook reading, with Seattle’s figure lower by the same margin.

The comparison captures two different endpoints: Kalshi’s pricing at settlement and the final consensus from the sportsbooks. The supplied figures do not establish whether those readings were taken at the same moment.

Earlier trading favored Seattle

Seattle had been priced at 61 percent in earlier Kalshi trading ahead of the Monday night game, according to SportsBookISH. The subsequent settlement figures therefore marked a substantial shift away from the Seahawks.

The report, published on Nov 3, 2026 at 4:45 AM ET, provides no intervening price history or explanation for that shift. The available snapshots show how sharply the market changed, but not when or why the repricing occurred.

What it means for prediction markets

• Timing matters: A settlement reading should not be treated as equivalent to a pregame forecast. Seattle’s earlier 61 percent price and its 1.0 percent settlement figure describe different stages of the market.
• Cross-market comparisons need context: Chicago’s 8.1-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and the seven-book consensus is measurable, but the supplied material does not establish synchronized observations.
• The price path remains unknown: These snapshots alone cannot identify what drove the reversal or assess the relative forecasting performance of Kalshi and sportsbooks.