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Bitcoin gains trail losses in Kalshi’s short-window settlement data

DeFi Rate's tracker of Kalshi's settled 15-minute Bitcoin markets shows Bitcoin finished up in 612 of its last 1,285 windows over the 14 days to November 4, and in 45 of 94 windows in the last 24 hours. DeFi Rate notes 15 percent of all prediction market trading is crypto, most of it in these short-window markets, and the Bitcoin price market for 5 p.m. ET on November 4 had traded 319,000 dollars in 24 hours.

According to DeFi Rate, Bitcoin ended higher in 612 of the last 1,285 settled 15-minute markets on Kalshi over the 14 days to November 4. That put the share of upward finishes at 48 percent.

The latest 24-hour sample showed a similar pattern: Bitcoin finished up in 45 of 94 windows, according to the outlet’s tracker.

Short windows draw crypto activity

DeFi Rate says crypto accounts for 15 percent of all prediction-market trading, with most of that activity concentrated in short-window markets.

Separately, the Bitcoin price market tied to 5 p.m. ET on November 4 recorded 319,000 dollars in trading over 24 hours, according to DeFi Rate. That volume measures activity in a specific price market, rather than the frequency of upward settlements across the tracker’s 15-minute windows.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 14-day results provide a historical baseline for upward finishes, not a forecast of the next window’s outcome.
  • Settlement frequency and trading volume answer different questions: the former describes outcomes, while the latter measures participation.
  • Crypto’s 15 percent share of prediction-market trading makes short-window contracts a meaningful segment to monitor, given DeFi Rate’s assessment that they account for most crypto activity.
KalshiBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
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