Kalshi’s short-window crypto results show upward finishes below half
DeFi Rate reports Bitcoin finished up in 588 of its last 1,238 settled 15-minute windows on Kalshi over 13 days to November 3, a 47 percent hit rate, with Ethereum at 48 percent across 1,237 windows. Crypto accounts for 14 percent of all prediction market trading, most of it in these 15-minute markets.
Bitcoin ended higher in 588 of its last 1,238 settled 15-minute windows on Kalshi, a 47 percent hit rate, according to DeFi Rate. The sample covered 13 days to November 3.
Ethereum’s upward-finish rate was 48 percent across 1,237 windows, according to the same reporting. Both assets therefore finished higher in fewer than half of their observed windows.
Short windows, substantial trading share
Crypto represents 14 percent of all prediction market trading, DeFi Rate reports. Most of that crypto activity takes place in these 15-minute markets.
The figures describe two distinct measures: the frequency of upward price outcomes in the sampled Kalshi windows and crypto’s share of trading across prediction markets. The 47 percent and 48 percent results are historical outcome rates, not estimates of the probability that either asset will rise in its next window.
What it means for prediction markets
- A recent outcome benchmark: Bitcoin’s 588 upward finishes across 1,238 settled windows provide a reference for the 13-day period, rather than evidence of a lasting directional pattern.
- Similar results for both assets: Ethereum’s 48 percent upward-finish rate was slightly above Bitcoin’s 47 percent, though the samples contained different numbers of windows.
- Activity is concentrated in short horizons: With crypto accounting for 14 percent of all prediction market trading and most of that activity in 15-minute markets, these contracts represent a substantial component of crypto-related participation.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- DeFi Ratedefirate.com
- Publisher
- https://defirate.com
- Source URL
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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