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Midterm markets reach record volume as Democratic sweep leads pricing

Cointelegraph reports a Washington Post analysis found nearly 1.9 billion dollars in election-related contracts had traded on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Monday, marking record trading activity for a midterm election cycle. A Democratic sweep was priced at 75 percent on Kalshi and 75.5 percent on Polymarket as of 4:30 p.m. UTC on Election Day.

Election-related contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket generated nearly 1.9 billion dollars in trading as of Monday, according to Cointelegraph, citing a Washington Post analysis.

The total marked record trading activity for a midterm election cycle. The figure covered election-related contracts across the two platforms, rather than a single outcome market.

Democratic sweep pricing closely aligned

A Democratic sweep was priced at 75 percent on Kalshi and 75.5 percent on Polymarket as of 4:30 p.m. UTC on Election Day, according to Cointelegraph.

Those readings put the platforms 0.5 percentage points apart. Both priced a Democratic sweep as the more likely outcome, but neither price represented a confirmed election result.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume and probability measure different things: The nearly 1.9 billion dollars reflected election-related trading activity; the 75 percent and 75.5 percent readings concerned a Democratic sweep.
  • The snapshots have different cutoffs: Trading volume was measured as of Monday, while the sweep prices were recorded at 4:30 p.m. UTC on Election Day.
  • Close pricing does not establish identical contracts: The supplied reporting does not include contract definitions or settlement rules, limiting direct comparisons beyond the stated prices.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Cointelegraphcointelegraph.com
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    https://cointelegraph.com
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