Recession odds edge higher on Kalshi, opening gap with Polymarket

Kalshi’s implied probability of a U.S. recession in 2026 reached 6.5%, compared with 5.5% on Polymarket, according to the supplied report citing Sikt Intelligence’s recession page.

The report, published Nov. 4, 2026, at 1:54 AM ET, references the page’s Nov. 4 update. Kalshi’s reading was up 2.5 percentage points over seven days.

A rise in pricing, but low absolute odds

The weekly increase puts Kalshi above Polymarket’s reported recession probability. Both readings nevertheless remain low: the move on Kalshi reflects a higher assessed likelihood, not recession becoming the expected outcome.

The supplied material does not include contract definitions, trading volumes or an explanation for the increase. It also provides no seven-day change for Polymarket, limiting comparisons of how sentiment evolved across the two venues.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level differ: Kalshi’s 2.5-percentage-point weekly rise indicates an upward repricing of recession risk, while its 6.5% probability remains low.
• The venues show different readings: Kalshi stands above Polymarket’s 5.5%, but the available information does not establish why.
• Contract details matter: Without resolution criteria or trading-volume data, the reported prices alone cannot establish whether the difference reflects divergent expectations or market-specific factors.