Bitcoin short-window odds converge across Kalshi and Polymarket US
DeFi Rate reports Kalshi priced Bitcoin at 68 percent to finish the 15-minute window above its 76,687.44 dollar target, with Polymarket US at 67 percent Up, and both venues settle the short windows on the CF Benchmarks index.
Kalshi and Polymarket US showed closely aligned probabilities for Bitcoin’s 15-minute markets heading into the 4:30 AM ET window, according to DeFi Rate.
A one-percentage-point difference
Kalshi priced a 68 percent probability that Bitcoin would finish the 15-minute window above its $76,687.44 target. Polymarket US priced its Up outcome at 67 percent, according to DeFi Rate.
The reported probabilities were one percentage point apart, with both venues favoring an Up outcome. The supplied summary did not specify a separate target for Polymarket US.
Shared settlement reference
Both venues use the CF Benchmarks index to settle these short windows, according to DeFi Rate. That common reference is relevant when comparing the contracts, though it does not by itself establish that their target levels are identical.
The report was published on Nov 3, 2026, at 6:00 AM ET. The supplied material describes pricing into the 4:30 AM ET window but does not provide a settlement result.
What it means for prediction markets
- Similar pricing: Kalshi’s 68 percent and Polymarket US’s 67 percent Up probabilities showed a narrow difference in expectations.
- Contract details matter: Kalshi’s stated threshold was $76,687.44; the summary did not supply a separate Polymarket US threshold.
- Odds are not outcomes: Both markets settle against the CF Benchmarks index, but the reported probabilities do not establish how the window ultimately resolved.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- DeFi Ratedefirate.com
- Publisher
- https://defirate.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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