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Hobbs holds commanding Kalshi odds despite closer Arizona polling

Kalshi prices incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs at 92.3 percent to win the Arizona governor race, up 1.5 points, with Republican Andy Biggs at 7.7 percent. Polling averages are much closer, with Hobbs at 49.8 percent and Biggs at 41.3 percent.

Kalshi puts incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs’s chance of winning re-election as Arizona governor at 92.3 percent, according to Kalshi. Republican Andy Biggs stands at 7.7 percent.

Market pricing and polling diverge

The update, published Nov 3, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET, shows Hobbs’s implied probability up 1.5 points. That leaves the market heavily favoring the incumbent.

Polling averages show a closer contest: Hobbs has 49.8 percent support, compared with 41.3 percent for Biggs. Both measures favor Hobbs, but they describe different aspects of the race.

Reading the numbers

The polling figures measure voter support, while Kalshi’s percentages represent market-implied chances of victory. A 92.3 percent win probability is therefore not a forecast that Hobbs will receive that share of the vote.

The supplied update does not explain what drove the 1.5-point increase or provide further detail about the polling averages. It establishes a strong market favorite without identifying the basis for that confidence.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Hobbs is the clear favorite: Kalshi assigns her a 92.3 percent chance of victory, against 7.7 percent for Biggs.
  • Polls and probabilities are not interchangeable: The 49.8 percent–41.3 percent polling split should not be compared directly with market win probabilities.
  • The movement has limited context: Hobbs’s 1.5-point increase signals higher implied confidence, but the supplied material gives no explanation for the change.
KalshiElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com
    Source URL
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