Congressional betting expands as briefing flags thin markets and concentrated trading
RG reports the Anti-Corruption Data Collective briefing found Kalshi accounted for more than 286 million dollars of the 431 million dollar total across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US, nearly triple the 2024 cycle, while 90 percent of congressional markets had less than 10,000 dollars in volume and the top 1 percent of Polymarket wallets made 75 percent of its congressional volume in October.
A briefing from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) tallied 431 million dollars bet across 28,845 prediction markets tied to the 2026 congressional elections, according to RG. The total covered Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US.
Kalshi accounted for more than 286 million dollars of that activity, RG reported. The combined total was nearly triple the level recorded during the 2024 cycle.
Large totals, limited market depth
The aggregate volume contrasted with modest activity in most individual markets. According to RG’s account of the briefing, 90 percent of congressional markets recorded less than 10,000 dollars in volume, while 66 percent could have their prices shifted by five cents with less than 100 dollars.
Trading on Polymarket was also concentrated among a small share of wallets. The top 1 percent of its wallets generated 75 percent of the platform’s congressional volume in October, according to RG. That finding concerns wallets, rather than a count of individual traders.
What it means for prediction markets
- Volume and depth are different signals. The 431 million dollar total does not imply that individual congressional contracts can absorb substantial trades without price changes.
- Small trades can matter. The five-cent price-movement finding suggests that some changes in market-implied probabilities may reflect limited trading depth rather than a broad reassessment.
- Participation deserves scrutiny. Polymarket’s concentration figures are relevant when assessing whether trading volume represents a wide range of views; wallet counts alone do not establish how many people are trading.
Sources & attribution
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- https://rg.org
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