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Congressional betting reaches $431 million as market depth draws scrutiny

RG.org reports that the Anti-Corruption Data Collective counted 431 million dollars wagered on 2026 House and Senate markets across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US, with Kalshi accounting for more than 286 million dollars. The group counted 28,845 congressional markets, 61 times as many as in 2024, and found 96 percent of live markets could be moved five cents for 3,500 dollars or less.

The Anti-Corruption Data Collective counted $431 million wagered on 2026 House and Senate markets across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US, according to RG.org. That total is nearly triple the amount for the 2024 cycle.

Kalshi accounted for more than $286 million of the total, placing the majority of the reported congressional wagering on that platform.

Market expansion outpaces growth in wagering

The group counted 28,845 congressional markets, according to RG.org—61 times as many as in 2024. The increase in market count was substantially larger than the increase in dollars wagered between the two cycles.

The collective also found that 96 percent of live markets could have their prices moved five cents with $3,500 or less. That finding distinguishes the overall scale of congressional betting from the depth available in individual markets.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Aggregate wagering does not establish market depth. The $431 million total sits alongside a finding that relatively small sums could move prices in most live markets.
  • Price changes warrant context. The five-cent price-impact finding suggests readers should consider market depth before interpreting a move as a broad shift in expectations.
  • Platform activity is uneven. Kalshi’s more than $286 million represents the majority of the total, so the combined figure should not be read as evidence of comparable activity across all three platforms.
KalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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