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Vance leads Rubio in early pricing for 2028 Republican nomination

Vance averages 35.5 cents on Kalshi and 38.4 cents on Polymarket in prices observed between 2:55 AM and 4:10 AM ET on November 1. Democrats are priced at about 64 percent to win the 2028 presidential election on the same board.

JD Vance is priced at 37 percent to become the 2028 Republican nominee, ahead of Marco Rubio at 21 percent, according to DeFi Rate. The figures put Vance 16 percentage points above Rubio.

Prices across two platforms

DeFi Rate’s summary places Vance’s average price at 35.5 cents on Kalshi and 38.4 cents on Polymarket. Those observations were recorded between 2:55 AM and 4:10 AM ET on November 1.

The platform averages show a higher price for Vance on Polymarket than on Kalshi. Both sit below 50 cents, distinguishing his lead over Rubio from an outright majority probability of securing the nomination.

Nomination lead differs from election outlook

On the same board, Democrats are priced at about 64 percent to win the 2028 presidential election, according to DeFi Rate. That measures the party’s general-election prospects, rather than the Republican nomination contest.

The report was published on Nov 1, 2026 at 4:15 AM ET. Its figures are a snapshot of pricing during the stated observation window, not a result for either contest.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Separate outcomes: Vance’s 37 percent nomination price and Democrats’ roughly 64 percent election price concern different events; neither directly supplies Vance’s probability of winning the presidency.
  • Platform differences: The 35.5-cent Kalshi average and 38.4-cent Polymarket average show that pricing varied by venue during the observation window.
  • Limited ranking evidence: Vance leads Rubio in the figures provided, but the summary does not include prices for other Republican contenders.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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