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Iran invasion contract leads trading volume in World Monitor market snapshot

World Monitor says its 50 tracked markets total 246.8 million dollars in volume, led by the contract on the US invading Iran before 2027 at 10.5 percent with 78.3 million dollars traded on Polymarket.

World Monitor’s snapshot of 50 tracked markets on Polymarket and Kalshi puts their combined trading volume at 246.8 million dollars, according to World Monitor.

The update, published Nov 7, 2026, at 11:30 AM ET, identifies the contract on whether the US will invade Iran before 2027 as the most traded market in that group.

Iran contract draws the largest volume

The Polymarket contract stood at 10.5 percent, with 78.3 million dollars traded, according to World Monitor. Those figures distinguish its market-implied likelihood from the amount of trading it has attracted.

The summary provides no individual figures for the other tracked contracts or a breakdown of total volume between Polymarket and Kalshi. The reported ranking therefore applies to World Monitor’s tracked group, rather than establishing a ranking across every market on either platform.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The Iran invasion contract combines the tracked group’s highest trading volume with a 10.5 percent reading; heavy trading does not itself imply a high likelihood of the event.
  • The 246.8 million dollars represents volume across 50 tracked markets, not a stated total for all Polymarket and Kalshi activity.
  • The snapshot supplies no earlier readings, so it does not establish whether the Iran contract’s implied likelihood has risen or fallen.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    World Monitor
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