Cuba strike contract draws $7.7 million as traders price low odds
World Monitor includes the contract among the 15 most traded markets on its live board of 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
A Polymarket contract on a US strike on Cuba by December 31 is priced at 10.5 percent, with $7.7 million traded, according to World Monitor.
The figures were reported on Nov 7, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. The price reflects market positioning on the specified outcome, rather than confirmation that a strike will occur.
Trading activity and timing
World Monitor places the contract among the 15 most traded markets on its live board. That board covers 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi; the Cuba strike contract is on Polymarket.
The market closes on January 1, 2027. That closing date is distinct from the December 31 deadline specified in the event being traded.
What it means for prediction markets
- Price and activity tell different stories: The 10.5 percent price indicates a low-priced outcome despite $7.7 million in trading.
- The ranking has a defined scope: Its top-15 position applies to World Monitor’s 50-market live board, not necessarily the broader prediction-market universe.
- Resolution details remain unavailable: The supplied summary does not include the contract’s full criteria for what qualifies as a US strike on Cuba.
Sources & attribution
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- World Monitor
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