Tiger Woods contract leads price divide between Kalshi and Polymarket
Predictions.io tracks 1,598 validated Polymarket-Kalshi question matches as of October 31, with 70 matched outcomes priced on both venues within the last 60 minutes. The average price gap across those matches is 1.9 cents, with 7 percent showing gaps of 5 cents or more.
A question about whether Tiger Woods will play a PGA tournament in 2026 showed the largest price difference between Kalshi and Polymarket, according to Predictions.io. The outcome was priced at 46 cents on Polymarket and 10 cents on Kalshi—a 36-cent spread.
The figures appeared in an update published Oct 31, 2026, at 1:45 PM ET. The Woods contract stood out against a substantially smaller average difference among recently priced matches.
Most matched prices were closer
As of October 31, Predictions.io tracked 1,598 validated question matches between Polymarket and Kalshi. Of those, 70 matched outcomes had prices on both venues within the previous 60 minutes.
Across those recently priced matches, the average gap was 1.9 cents. Gaps of at least 5 cents appeared in 7 percent of matches, according to Predictions.io.
The supplied figures do not explain the Woods contract’s divergence or provide its underlying settlement terms. They establish a price difference, but not why the two venues valued the outcome differently.
What it means for prediction markets
- The Woods spread was an outlier: Its 36-cent gap was far larger than the 1.9-cent average among recently priced matches.
- The comparison covered a limited active subset: The pricing snapshot included 70 matched outcomes, rather than all 1,598 validated question matches.
- A price gap is not a complete comparison: Without settlement terms or further market details, the figures alone do not establish whether the contracts offer equivalent exposure.
Sources & attribution
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