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Midterm contract rules put Kalshi and Polymarket on different settlement clocks

Kalshi House and Senate markets can settle early on a consensus of media calls, with a fallback to the party of the Speaker or the Senate president pro tempore on February 1, 2027. Polymarket global markets settle through the UMA optimistic oracle, where a proposed result can be disputed during a challenge window and a contested result can take days.

The November 3 midterms will test two different approaches to election-market settlement. According to PredictReport, Kalshi’s House and Senate markets allow early settlement based on agreement among media calls, while Polymarket’s global markets use a process that permits challenges to proposed results.

Kalshi’s media-call route and fallback

Kalshi can settle its House and Senate markets early when media calls reach a consensus, according to PredictReport. That gives those contracts a route to resolution before their fallback date.

The fallback looks to the party of the Speaker or the Senate president pro tempore on February 1, 2027. Those officeholders’ party affiliations provide the alternative basis for settling the respective chamber markets.

Polymarket’s challenge process

Polymarket’s global markets resolve through the UMA optimistic oracle, according to PredictReport. A proposed result enters a challenge window during which it can be disputed.

A contested result can take days to resolve. The distinction for readers is therefore not just which outcome is proposed, but which settlement procedure applies and whether that procedure has finished.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Settlement timing differs: Kalshi has an early-resolution path through a consensus of media calls; Polymarket’s process includes an opportunity to dispute a proposed result.
  • Fallback terms matter: Kalshi’s February 1, 2027 fallback ties resolution to the party of the Speaker or Senate president pro tempore.
  • A proposed result is not necessarily final: On Polymarket’s global markets, a dispute can extend resolution by days.
KalshiPolymarketSenateElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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