Polymarket trims odds of US-Iran ceasefire lasting through November 8

The Polymarket contract on whether the US-Iran ceasefire will continue through November 8 fell 5.5 points in the latest 24-hour snapshot, according to PolymarketTrader. Its price stood at 71.5 cents, corresponding to a market-implied probability of 71.5 percent.

Trading activity and timing

The update, published Oct 31, 2026, at 2:15 PM ET, recorded 218,000 dollars in trading over 24 hours. Reported liquidity was 83,600 dollars.

The decline leaves ceasefire continuation through November 8 priced as the more likely outcome. The supplied summary does not identify a catalyst for the move or describe any change in the ceasefire itself.

Separate deadlines

The November 8 contract is distinct from the longer-dated November 22 and November 30 ceasefire markets tracked earlier today, according to PolymarketTrader. The supplied update gives no prices or changes for those two contracts, so it does not establish whether their odds moved in the same direction.

What it means for prediction markets

• The 5.5-point decline reflects a lower market-implied probability for the November 8 deadline, not confirmation that the ceasefire has ended.
• The 218,000 dollars in 24-hour turnover and 83,600 dollars in liquidity provide trading context; neither figure identifies what drove the repricing.
• Different deadlines represent separate forecasts. The November 8 move alone does not establish a shift in expectations for November 22 or November 30.