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Flagged wallets favor No on US blockade announcement contract

CoinStats reports its Polymarket whale and smart-money snapshot scored the contract on the United States announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026 as a strong No at 43 percent, with four flagged wallets and about 29,000 dollars in signal volume. The same snapshot scored the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding through November 4 as a strong Yes at 97 percent, with about 22,000 dollars in signal volume from two wallets.

According to CoinStats, its Polymarket whale and smart-money snapshot assigned a strong No signal to the contract asking whether the United States will announce an end to the Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026. The snapshot put No at 43 percent.

Four flagged wallets contributed about 29,000 dollars in signal volume to that reading. The supplied summary identifies the direction and size of the flagged activity but provides no broader trading-volume figures.

Two contracts, different signals

The same CoinStats snapshot assigned a strong Yes signal to the contract on whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold through November 4. Yes stood at 97 percent, with about 22,000 dollars in signal volume across two wallets.

The report was published on Nov 4, 2026 at 2:15 AM ET. The ceasefire contract therefore concerned the publication date, while the blockade-announcement contract extended to December 31, 2026.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Signal strength and price are distinct: CoinStats labeled the blockade contract a strong No even though the reported No price was 43 percent. The label should not be read as a separate probability estimate.
  • The flagged samples are small: The blockade reading drew on four wallets; the ceasefire reading drew on two. Those counts describe the snapshot, not the full market.
  • Contract wording matters: The blockade question concerns a United States announcement by December 31, 2026, while the ceasefire question concerns whether the truce holds through November 4. They measure different events over different time horizons.
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Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    CoinStats
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