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Andrews victory upends prediction markets’ favored outcome in South Carolina

Reuters reports Kalshi and Polymarket implied a 70 percent chance late Tuesday afternoon that Republican Darline Graham would win the South Carolina Senate seat, but Democrat Annie Andrews won the race. Reuters called it the markets' first high-profile miss of the midterms, with more than 1.48 billion dollars wagered on Tuesday's elections.

Democrat Annie Andrews won the South Carolina Senate race despite prediction markets favoring Republican Darline Graham, according to Reuters.

Late Tuesday afternoon, prices on Kalshi and Polymarket implied a 70 percent probability of a Graham victory. The result instead went to Andrews.

A prominent midterm forecasting setback

Reuters described the outcome as prediction markets’ first high-profile miss of the midterms. Its report was published Nov 4, 2026, at 2:45 AM ET.

The upset came amid substantial election wagering: according to Reuters, more than 1.48 billion dollars was wagered on Tuesday’s elections. That figure covers the elections, rather than just the South Carolina Senate contest.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A favored outcome is not a certainty. The 70 percent implied probability favored Graham but still left room for a different result.
  • Timing matters. The reported odds reflect late Tuesday afternoon, not necessarily the markets’ final assessment before the outcome.
  • One result offers limited evidence about overall accuracy. Andrews’ victory establishes that the favored candidate lost this contest; it does not, by itself, measure how well the markets performed across Tuesday’s elections.
KalshiPolymarketSenateMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Reutersreuters.com
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    https://www.reuters.com
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