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Utah Mammoth Cup prices diverge across Gemini and Kalshi

Rivo reports its November 4, 6:38 PM ET cross-venue read prices the Utah Mammoth to win the Stanley Cup at 1 cent on Gemini and 5 cents on Kalshi, a 4 point gap among the widest it currently tracks on Stanley Cup odds. A gap only pays after both venues fees and settlement rules are accounted for.

Utah Mammoth contracts to win the Stanley Cup were priced at 1 cent on Gemini and 5 cents on Kalshi in a cross-venue comparison by Rivo. The 4 point difference was among the widest Stanley Cup gaps it was tracking at the time.

A snapshot of venue pricing

According to Rivo, the comparison was taken on November 4 at 6:38 PM ET. The report was published on Nov 4, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.

The two prices concern the same stated outcome: the Utah Mammoth winning the Stanley Cup. Rivo’s snapshot shows a difference between venues, rather than a single, consistent market price.

Costs and settlement matter

The headline spread alone does not establish a payoff. As Rivo noted, any benefit from the gap depends on accounting for fees at both venues and their settlement rules.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Price dispersion: Gemini’s 1-cent price and Kalshi’s 5-cent price put the observed difference at 4 points.
  • Timing: The comparison reflects the November 4, 6:38 PM ET snapshot, not necessarily subsequent pricing.
  • Net payoff: Fees and settlement rules must be considered before treating the difference as a realizable gain.
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Sources & attribution

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    Rivo
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