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Recession odds ease on Kalshi and Polymarket in late October

Sikt Intelligence, refreshing from Kalshi and Polymarket public data, puts the US recession in 2026 market at 2.5 percent on Kalshi, down one point in seven days, and 6 percent on Polymarket, down 1.5 points in seven days, as of October 31, 2026.

The probability of a US recession in 2026 declined on both Kalshi and Polymarket over seven days, according to Sikt Intelligence’s October 31, 2026 update.

Two platforms, different probabilities

Kalshi priced the recession outcome at 2.5 percent, down one percentage point over seven days, according to Sikt Intelligence.

Polymarket put the probability at 6 percent, a decline of 1.5 percentage points over the same period. Its pricing remained higher than Kalshi’s despite the larger decrease.

A dated market snapshot

Sikt Intelligence’s update drew on public data from Kalshi and Polymarket and was published on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:15 PM ET. The supplied summary does not explain what drove the declines or provide contract-resolution terms.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Both platforms showed lower recession probabilities over seven days, but they did not converge on the same assessment.
  • The figures represent pricing as of October 31, 2026, rather than a confirmed economic outcome.
  • Without resolution terms in the supplied material, readers cannot establish whether the two contracts use identical recession criteria.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Sikt Intelligence
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