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Bass retains Los Angeles market lead as Raman narrows gap

RG's Polymarket daily for October 31 puts incumbent Karen Bass at 58 percent and Councilmember Nithya Raman at 42 percent in the Los Angeles mayoral runoff market, with 16.8 million dollars traded ahead of the Tuesday, November 3 vote. Bass has slipped three points since early Friday.

Incumbent Karen Bass stood at 58 percent against Councilmember Nithya Raman at 42 percent in the Polymarket market for the Los Angeles mayoral runoff, according to RG’s October 31 daily.

The market had recorded 16.8 million dollars traded ahead of the Tuesday, November 3 vote. RG’s update was published Oct 31, 2026, at 10:30 PM ET.

Bass leads despite a recent decline

Bass had lost three percentage points since early Friday, according to RG. That decline left her ahead of Raman, but with a narrower advantage than at the earlier checkpoint.

The October 31 snapshot puts the candidates 16 percentage points apart in market pricing. Those prices reflect the market’s assessment of the runoff outcome, not projected vote shares.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Bass remains the favorite: The 58 percent–42 percent split favors the incumbent without treating the result as settled.
  • Recent movement has reduced her edge: The three-point decline since early Friday is the reported directional change heading toward November 3.
  • Volume is not a verdict: The 16.8 million dollars traded measures market activity; it does not establish the accuracy of the current prices.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    RGrg.org
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    https://rg.org
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