Predict.fun valuation odds slip as Polymarket trading reaches 451,000 dollars
The Polymarket market on Predict.fun's fully diluted valuation topping 800 million dollars one day after launch eased 5.5 points to 75 percent on 451,000 dollars traded, according to the PredictionBubbles crypto board. The market has about 425 days left to run.
Polymarket pricing put the probability of Predict.fun’s fully diluted valuation exceeding 800 million dollars one day after launch at 75 percent, according to the PredictionBubbles crypto board.
The Nov 1, 2026, 9:00 AM ET update showed a decline of 5.5 percentage points, with 451,000 dollars traded in the market.
Valuation threshold remains favored
Despite the retreat, the pricing continued to favor a valuation above the specified threshold. The contract concerns fully diluted valuation one day after launch, rather than a valuation reached at any point.
The market has about 425 days remaining, according to PredictionBubbles. That leaves a substantial interval before its scheduled conclusion; the supplied summary does not identify a launch date or explain the price decline.
What it means for prediction markets
- Direction: The 5.5-point decline indicates lower market-implied confidence, although the 75 percent price still favors the threshold being exceeded.
- Resolution focus: The relevant test is fully diluted valuation above 800 million dollars one day after launch.
- Trading context: The 451,000 dollars traded provides activity context, but the summary offers no order-book or liquidity detail.
- Time horizon: About 425 days remain, leaving room for pricing to change before the market concludes.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
- Publisher
- https://predictionbubbles.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to PredictionBubbles”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- Predictions.io tracks 1,670 validated Polymarket-Kalshi question matches, with Polymarket carrying $6.3B of volume on 2,932 open questions against Kalshi's $2.3B on 6,455 open questions
- NBA names Kalshi and Polymarket its preferred prediction market exchanges and signs a CFTC integrity memorandum, KuCoin reports
- Polymarket is investigating well-timed Netanyahu trades from newly created wallets after markets missed on Israel's election, Wall Street Journal reports
- Any country leaving NATO by June 30, 2027 market falls 23.5 points to 8.5 percent on Polymarket, PredictionBubbles reports
- Next Fable Model release by November 19 priced at 61 percent on Polymarket, down 9.5 points, PredictionBubbles reports
- Chargers at Rams market prices Los Angeles at 73 percent across prediction markets for the Sunday afternoon slate, Covers reports