Recession odds ease as Kalshi and Polymarket retain pricing gap

According to Sikt Intelligence, prediction markets put the probability of a US recession in 2026 at 2.5% on Kalshi and 6.5% on Polymarket.

The figures come from Sikt Intelligence’s recession page, refreshed Oct. 31 using public data from both platforms. The accompanying update was published Oct 31, 2026, at 3:24 PM ET.

Lower odds on both platforms

Both markets declined by 1 percentage point over the preceding seven days, according to Sikt Intelligence. The moves indicate lower market-implied recession probabilities on each platform over that period.

Polymarket’s reading remained 4 percentage points above Kalshi’s. The supplied summary does not explain the difference or provide contract terms, trading volumes or liquidity data that could help assess it.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction is consistent: Both platforms moved down by 1 percentage point over seven days, despite their different probability levels.
• Pricing remains separated: Kalshi’s 2.5% and Polymarket’s 6.5% readings should be treated as distinct market estimates rather than a single consensus figure.
• Comparability is uncertain: Without contract terms or trading data, the supplied material does not establish why the platforms differ or how directly their prices can be compared.