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Pope Leo XIV Nobel pricing leads verified exchange gaps

PicksByOdds listed the 6.8 percentage point gap as the largest among its verified Kalshi and Polymarket pairs for the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize question. The next widest gap was Manchester City to win the Premier League at 15 cents on Kalshi against 10 cents on Polymarket.

According to PicksByOdds, the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize market for Pope Leo XIV had the largest pricing difference among its verified Kalshi and Polymarket pairs.

The update, published Nov 1, 2026 · 8:00 AM ET, showed 1 cent on Kalshi against 8 cents on Polymarket. PicksByOdds listed the gap as 6.8 percentage points.

Two markets, opposite pricing directions

The next-largest gap was in the market for Manchester City to win the Premier League, according to PicksByOdds. That outcome traded at 15 cents on Kalshi and 10 cents on Polymarket.

The comparisons put the higher price on different exchanges: Polymarket for Pope Leo XIV and Kalshi for Manchester City. The reported ranking applies to PicksByOdds’ verified pairs, rather than establishing which exchange generally prices outcomes higher.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The Pope Leo XIV comparison highlights a substantial difference in pricing for the same 2027 Nobel Peace Prize question across the two venues.
  • The displayed whole-cent prices imply a 7-percentage-point difference, while PicksByOdds reported 6.8 percentage points. The supplied summary does not explain that distinction.
  • The summary provides no liquidity, fee or contract-resolution details, so the price gaps alone do not establish an executable trading opportunity.
KalshiPolymarketNobelPrizeInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PicksByOdds
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