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Polymarket ceasefire contracts draw volume as November 5 outcome nears par

DeFi Rate ranks the ceasefire market third by 24-hour volume, with the November 5 outcome priced at 99.4 cents. A separate Israel-Iran ceasefire market traded 781,000 dollars in the same period.

US-Iran contract ranks third

Polymarket’s US-Iran ceasefire market recorded 1.2 million dollars in trading over 24 hours, according to DeFi Rate.

DeFi Rate placed the market third by 24-hour volume. Its November 5 outcome was priced at 99.4 cents, putting that outcome close to par.

Separate Israel-Iran market attracts activity

A separate Israel-Iran ceasefire market generated 781,000 dollars in trading during the same period, according to DeFi Rate. Its volume was below that of the US-Iran market.

The supplied summary, published Nov 7, 2026 · 10:00 AM ET, does not include either contract’s resolution criteria or settlement status. The November 5 outcome’s price should therefore be distinguished from confirmation that the contract has settled.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The US-Iran market’s third-place volume ranking indicates substantial trading activity, but volume alone does not establish an outcome’s likelihood.
  • The 99.4-cent price applies specifically to the November 5 outcome, rather than to every possible ceasefire timeframe.
  • The Israel-Iran contract is a separate market. Its 781,000 dollars in volume should not be treated as trading in the US-Iran contract.
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Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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