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Alien confirmation contract leads tech trading despite low implied odds

The Kalshi market on whether the US will confirm that aliens exist before 2027 is the most traded tech market on the PredictionBubbles tech board, with 29.8 million dollars traded at a 4.7 percent probability, up 0.2 points. The board refreshes every 15 minutes across Kalshi and Polymarket tech markets.

A Kalshi contract asking whether the US will confirm that aliens exist before 2027 leads the PredictionBubbles tech board by trading volume, according to PredictionBubbles.

Heavy trading, low probability

The market has recorded 29.8 million dollars in trading, while its implied probability stands at 4.7 percent. That combination puts a low-probability outcome at the top of the board’s trading rankings.

The probability is up 0.2 points in the supplied update, published Nov 1, 2026, at 9:30 AM ET. The summary does not specify the period over which that change occurred.

A cross-platform snapshot

According to PredictionBubbles, the tech board refreshes every 15 minutes and covers tech markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. The reported lead therefore refers to that board, rather than a ranking of every prediction market.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume and likelihood are distinct: The contract’s 29.8 million dollars traded does not translate into a high implied probability; the reported reading is 4.7 percent.
  • The deadline defines the question: The contract concerns US confirmation before 2027, not whether aliens exist independently of any announcement.
  • The figures are a snapshot: The board’s 15-minute refresh schedule means the supplied volume, probability and ranking should be understood in the context of this update.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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