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Ford tops 75 percent in Nevada markets despite tight polling

Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket have pushed Aaron Ford's odds above 75 percent in recent weeks after Joe Lombardo was the favourite on both platforms through much of August and September. Traditional polling is far closer, with one recent poll putting Ford ahead 45 percent to 44 percent ahead of the November 3 vote.

Aaron Ford’s chances in the Nevada governor race have climbed above 75 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket, according to iGaming Business. The pricing marks a reversal ahead of the November 3 vote.

Joe Lombardo had been the favourite on both platforms through much of August and September. Traders have shifted toward Ford in recent weeks, putting him clearly ahead in the two markets.

Markets and polling tell different stories

Traditional polling shows a much tighter contest. One recent poll placed Ford at 45 percent and Lombardo at 44 percent, according to iGaming Business—a one-percentage-point advantage.

The polling figures and market prices measure different things: voter support versus the implied likelihood of winning. Even so, the contrast is notable: both platforms now assign Ford a strong chance of victory while that poll shows only a narrow lead.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The favourite has changed: Lombardo’s earlier advantage on both platforms has given way to Ford pricing above 75 percent.
  • Polling remains close: The recent 45 percent–44 percent result does not show a similarly large gap in voter support.
  • Timing matters: With the November 3 vote approaching, the key distinction is between confidence in the winner and the expected margin of victory.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    iGaming Business
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