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Kalshi and Polymarket recession odds diverge in latest weekly comparison

Sikt Intelligence reports its November 4 reading prices a United States recession in 2026 at 6.5 percent on Kalshi, up 2.5 points over seven days, and at 5.5 percent on Polymarket, down 2 points over seven days. Sikt refreshes the page from the two venues' public market data several times a day.

According to Sikt Intelligence’s November 4 reading, markets on Kalshi and Polymarket assign low probabilities to a United States recession in 2026, but their prices have moved in opposite directions over seven days.

Two venues, different weekly moves

Kalshi priced the outcome at 6.5 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points over seven days, according to Sikt Intelligence.

Polymarket priced the same broad outcome at 5.5 percent, down 2 percentage points over that period. The readings put Kalshi above Polymarket despite both remaining in single digits.

A periodically refreshed snapshot

The update was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 7:15 AM ET. Sikt Intelligence refreshes its page several times a day using public market data from the two venues, so the figures represent a snapshot rather than fixed probabilities.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The weekly moves do not show a uniform repricing of recession risk: Kalshi’s probability rose while Polymarket’s fell.
  • Both readings remain low, but the difference in direction matters when comparing sentiment across venues.
  • With the page refreshed several times daily, comparisons should retain the November 4 timing of these figures.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Sikt Intelligence
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