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Political positions swell as sports dominate prediction market trading

VIP-Grinders reports Artemis data showing political open interest rose 52 percent in October to 1.01 billion dollars, the highest since the 2024 presidential election, ahead of the November 3 midterms. Across the trailing twelve months, single sports contracts accounted for 44 percent of everything traded on Kalshi and Polymarket, and combination contracts, mostly multi-leg sports parlays, for more than a third.

Political contracts accounted for 41.2 percent of prediction-market open interest in October despite generating just 4.5 percent of trading volume, according to Artemis data reported by VIP-Grinders. The gap highlights how the composition of outstanding positions differed from the markets attracting the most trading.

Political exposure rose ahead of midterms

Political open interest increased 52 percent in October to $1.01 billion, according to VIP-Grinders’ account of the Artemis data. That was the highest level since the 2024 presidential election.

The increase came ahead of the November 3 midterms. The figures describe positioning before the vote, rather than activity following it.

Sports led trading over the longer period

Across the trailing twelve months, single sports contracts represented 44 percent of everything traded on Kalshi and Polymarket, according to the same reporting.

Combination contracts accounted for more than a third of trading over that period. Those contracts consisted mostly of multi-leg sports parlays, giving sports another substantial presence beyond single contracts.

The October political figures and the trailing-twelve-month trading breakdown cover different periods and measures. Together, they show why trading volume alone does not describe where prediction-market positions are concentrated.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume and open interest tell different stories: Politics held 41.2 percent of October open interest with only 4.5 percent of volume.
  • Election positioning grew substantially: The 52 percent increase brought political open interest to $1.01 billion ahead of the November 3 midterms; it does not establish post-election trends.
  • Sports remained central to trading: Single sports contracts supplied 44 percent of trailing-twelve-month activity on Kalshi and Polymarket, alongside a combination-contract category dominated by sports parlays.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    VIP-Grinders
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  2. Source 2
    Artemis data via VIP-Grinders
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