Wedgewood disclosure puts Kalshi’s VoteHub settlement rules under scrutiny
ICoinMarket reports polling firm Wedgewood acknowledged on October 20 that it had fabricated most of its election surveys, and VoteHub, an aggregator that carried those results, is the named data source for recurring Kalshi contracts. Kalshi's filing states revisions made after expiration will not be counted in determining the expiration value, raising questions about contracts settled on figures later withdrawn.
Wedgewood’s acknowledgment that it fabricated most of its election surveys has raised questions about the data behind recurring Kalshi contracts. According to iCoinMarket, VoteHub carried the polling firm’s results and is the designated data source for those contracts.
Polling data and settlement finality
Wedgewood made its acknowledgment on October 20, according to iCoinMarket. The connection to Kalshi runs through VoteHub’s polling averages, which determine settlement for the contracts in question.
Kalshi’s filing says changes made after expiration are excluded when determining the expiration value, according to iCoinMarket. That rule makes the timing of any revision important: a later correction would not be counted in that determination.
Questions about withdrawn figures
The disclosure raises questions about contracts settled using figures that were subsequently withdrawn. The available reporting does not identify specific affected contracts or establish whether Wedgewood’s surveys changed any settlement outcome.
The central issue is the distinction between correcting a polling average and determining a contract’s expiration value. Under the stated rule, a post-expiration revision does not alter the data used for that determination.
What it means for prediction markets
- The named source matters: These recurring Kalshi contracts depend on VoteHub’s polling averages, making the aggregator’s underlying inputs relevant to settlement scrutiny.
- Revision timing matters: Kalshi’s filing excludes post-expiration changes from the expiration-value calculation.
- The impact remains unestablished: The available material raises settlement questions but does not show which contracts, if any, produced different outcomes because of the fabricated surveys.
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