Polymarket puts low odds on multiple US hurricane landfalls in 2026
Polymarket prices the chance that two or more hurricanes make landfall in the United States in 2026 at 6 percent, in a market launched on July 24, 2026. A winning yes share pays 1 dollar if the outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so the 6 cent price reads as a 6 percent probability.
Polymarket prices the probability of two or more hurricanes making landfall in the United States in 2026 at 6 percent, according to Polymarket. The supplied update is dated Nov 2, 2026, at 5:30 AM ET.
The contract and its payout
The market launched on July 24, 2026. Its outcome concerns whether at least two hurricanes make US landfall during 2026—not merely whether hurricanes form.
A winning yes share pays 1 dollar if that outcome occurs and nothing if it does not. The quoted 6 cent price therefore translates into a market-implied probability of 6 percent.
What the snapshot establishes
The supplied information provides a price at one point in time, but no earlier prices or trading-volume figures. It therefore does not establish whether expectations have risen or fallen since the market opened.
Nor does the summary provide a count of hurricanes that have already made landfall in 2026. The price describes the contract’s full-year outcome, rather than a specified number of additional landfalls after the update.
What it means for prediction markets
- Low implied likelihood: The 6 cent yes price assigns a 6 percent probability to two or more US hurricane landfalls in 2026; it does not rule the outcome out.
- Threshold matters: The contract concerns two or more landfalls, not the occurrence of a single landfall or overall hurricane activity.
- Limited context: Without price history, volume or a landfall tally, this snapshot alone cannot establish a trend or explain the pricing.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- Polymarketpolymarket.com
- Publisher
- https://polymarket.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
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