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Midterm trading volumes distinguish Kalshi from Polymarket US despite similar prices

Oddschecker compares the two CFTC-regulated venues ahead of the November 3 midterms, noting prices on the main markets are usually within a cent or two of each other. Kalshi is described as the bigger platform for the midterms while Polymarket US offers more down-ballot markets.

Kalshi and Polymarket US are showing broadly similar prices ahead of the November 3 midterms, despite differences in trading volume and market coverage, according to Oddschecker.

The comparison, published November 2, 2026, at 6:00 AM ET, describes Kalshi as the larger platform for midterm trading and Polymarket US as offering more down-ballot markets. Both venues are CFTC-regulated.

Volume and coverage set the venues apart

Kalshi’s House control market had exceeded $150 million in trading volume by October 30, according to Oddschecker. The figure provides a measure of activity in one of the platform’s main election markets.

For the Texas Senate race, October trading volume reached $18 million on Kalshi, compared with $3.7 million on Polymarket US. That comparison shows a substantial difference in activity for the same contest.

Main-market prices remain close

The gap in trading volume has not produced a similarly large difference in quoted prices. Oddschecker says prices across the main markets are generally within one or two cents of each other.

The distinction for readers is therefore not simply one of pricing: Kalshi leads in the reported midterm activity, while Polymarket US offers a broader selection of down-ballot markets.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume and prices tell different stories: The Texas Senate figures show markedly different trading activity, even as the main markets generally price closely across venues.
  • Market coverage matters: Polymarket US’s wider down-ballot offering distinguishes it from Kalshi’s larger reported midterm presence.
  • The figures are time-specific: The House control total is measured through October 30, while the Texas Senate comparison covers October; neither represents a final election-cycle total.
KalshiPolymarketSenateCFTCInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    Oddscheckeroddschecker.com
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    https://www.oddschecker.com
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