Polymarket profit concentration puts election market performance under scrutiny

A critique of election markets by Judith Levine, published by Mogaz on Nov. 3, says 0.1% of Polymarket accounts received three-quarters of the platform’s profits.

Concentrated gains, incomplete performance evidence

According to Mogaz, Levine’s critique draws on a working paper from London Business School and Yale examining wagerers’ results. The supplied item is dated Nov. 3, 2026, at 3:54 AM ET.

The available summary begins to describe a finding that almost every wagerer’s results were no better than a comparison benchmark, but cuts off before identifying that benchmark. Without the source text or links, the precise finding cannot be established from the material provided.

The profit-concentration figure concerns accounts, not necessarily individual traders. The supplied material does not specify the measurement period, how profits were calculated or whether the reported concentration applies exclusively to election markets.

What it means for prediction markets

• Profit distribution is the central claim: The reported three-quarters share going to 0.1% of accounts points to highly concentrated gains, but does not explain their cause.
• Trader performance and forecast accuracy are distinct: The supplied evidence concerns profits and wagerer results; it does not establish how accurately election-market prices predicted outcomes.
• The missing benchmark matters: Readers cannot assess the working paper’s performance comparison without its complete finding and methodology.