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Bitcoin’s five-minute Polymarket US results show a nearly even split

The ledger covers October 22 to November 3 and counts 288 new Bitcoin windows a day, each asking whether Bitcoin ends the five minutes at or above where it started. The median window moved 4.3 basis points, and one in ten moved more than 14.7 basis points across 3,350 measured windows.

Polymarket US Bitcoin contracts resolved Up in 49.5 percent of 3,374 five-minute windows since October 22, according to PredictionMarketsPicks. The ledger covers October 22 to November 3.

The figures were published on Nov 3, 2026, at 5:00 AM ET. They place the Up share close to half of recorded settlements, while leaving the direction of any individual window uncertain.

A five-minute test, repeated daily

The ledger counts 288 new Bitcoin windows a day. Each contract asks whether Bitcoin finishes the five-minute interval at or above its starting level, meaning an unchanged price qualifies for an Up outcome.

Price-movement statistics cover 3,350 measured windows, rather than the 3,374 windows in the settlement tally. According to PredictionMarketsPicks, the median window moved 4.3 basis points, while one in ten moved more than 14.7 basis points.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 49.5 percent Up settlement rate describes the recorded sample; it does not establish the probability of an Up result in the next window.
  • The settlement rule matters: Up includes both price increases and finishes exactly at the starting level.
  • Direction and movement size are separate measures. The settlement tally and movement statistics also use different sample counts, so readers should not treat their coverage as identical.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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