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Talarico holds prediction market advantage as Texas Senate election approaches

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate market ahead of the November 3 election, with polls cited by Action Network showing Talarico ahead by 2 to 6 points and about 57.1 million dollars in Kalshi volume.

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in prediction-market pricing for the Texas Senate race ahead of the November 3 election, according to Action Network.

Talarico contracts were priced at 70 cents on both Polymarket and Kalshi. Paxton contracts stood at 31 cents on Polymarket and 30 cents on Kalshi, according to the outlet’s reporting.

Polling and trading activity

Polls cited by Action Network put Talarico ahead by 2 to 6 points. Those polling margins and the market prices favor the same candidate, but they measure different things: a polling lead is not an election-win probability.

Kalshi volume was about 57.1 million dollars, according to Action Network. The figures appeared in an update published Nov 1, 2026, at 2:15 AM ET, ahead of the November 3 vote.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Both platforms priced Talarico at 70 cents, showing the same market assessment of the Democratic candidate at the reported snapshot.
  • Paxton’s price differed by one cent between platforms: 31 cents on Polymarket versus 30 cents on Kalshi.
  • The cited polling leads of 2 to 6 points provide context for Talarico’s market advantage, not a guarantee of the election outcome.
  • Kalshi’s approximately 57.1 million dollars in volume measures trading activity, not the accuracy of its prices.
KalshiPolymarketSenateElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Action Networkactionnetwork.com
    Publisher
    https://www.actionnetwork.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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