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Texas leads Senate trading as Talarico odds hover near 75 percent

Covers reports the Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton is the most traded individual Senate market in its roundup, with Talarico at about 75 percent on both platforms, followed by Michigan at 36 million dollars on Kalshi and 10 million on Polymarket and Maine at 22 million dollars on Kalshi. It notes Kansas and Iowa Senate races have each seen more than 11 million dollars traded as well.

The Texas Senate contest between James Talarico and Ken Paxton has attracted more trading than any other individual Senate race in a roundup by Covers. Trading volume reached more than $98 million at Kalshi and $15 million at Polymarket.

Talarico was priced at about 75 percent on both platforms, according to the roundup, published Nov 3, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET. That puts the two venues broadly in agreement on his chances despite their different trading totals.

Michigan follows Texas in trading volume

Michigan ranked behind Texas, with $36 million traded on Kalshi and $10 million on Polymarket, according to Covers. The gap between the two races was substantially larger on Kalshi than on Polymarket.

Maine’s Senate market recorded $22 million in Kalshi trading. Covers also noted that the Kansas and Iowa Senate contests had each generated more than $11 million in trading.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Texas led the individual Senate markets in Covers’ roundup by trading volume; that ranking measures activity, not certainty about the result.
  • Talarico’s roughly 75 percent pricing on both platforms showed similar assessments of his chances at the reported snapshot.
  • The supplied figures do not include candidate probabilities for Michigan, Maine, Kansas or Iowa, so their trading totals alone cannot establish which outcomes traders favored.
KalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Coverscovers.com
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    https://www.covers.com
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